Most Australian and US betting websites offer different NBA betting markets for each game. One of the most interesting and sometimes lucrative is the basketball player performance betting markets. Outside of the game’s superstars, most player stats fluctuate significantly each night. So if you can determine when a player’s night will or will not be, you can take advantage of the player’s performance in the NBA aftermarkets. Here are some tips for making your own decision regarding prop betting on player performance markets.
In general, some selected players are assigned an under/over on a different stat, be it rebounds, points, assists, or a combination of two or more of these. Usually the line is drawn around his season average for that specific star; for example, Luka Doncic’s season point average is 28.8, so bookies can set his point line at 28.5. Also, a few key factors can make a player perform poorly or well on any given night. Bookmakers have enough experience adjusting their lines if something big happens. Still, sometimes they go unnoticed, and sometimes you get a little window to jump through before they update.
The main factor is injury. When a standout player on the team suffers an injury, the bookies think that his replacement in the starting eleven should take most of his production. Although the replacement will indeed increase stats, at least two other players in the starting lineup will get an extra boost in production that will see them reach the over and vice versa if an injured player returns to the lineup. An excellent case is when point guard Chris Paul left with an injury and Austin Rivers, his replacement in the starting lineup, gets a notable raise, but also players like JJ Reddick and Jamal Crawford improve their points and assist numbers in Chris Paul’s absence. . These types often go unnoticed by bookmakers.
Another essential factor in prop betting is matchups. Few teams defend some positions extremely well while producing other positions in spades. It’s usually a safe bet to avoid overs when your player is playing against teams like the Grizzlies or Spurs. They can defend all positions well and rarely allow a single player to dominate the game. One team to watch out for is the Boston Celtics. They can defend very well at guard with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, but on the other hand, they are the worst rebounding team. We saw Andre Drummond, the rebounding leader whose rebounding line usually settles around 14.5, claim 22 against the Celtics, which may be an easy win for overs. The best thing to do when participating in this type of betting is to study team stats and defense versus positions. There are several sites where you can get all the information.
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