With the first and arguably the best game of the weekend at the Millennium Stadium tonight, here are some thoughts on this year’s six nations tournament.
Ireland is apparently the favourite, closely followed by England. Unfortunately, due to a lack of depth, Ireland is likely not to live up to the bookies’ glowing assessment. Despite a wonderful set of results in the Autumn Internationals, the Irish start the tournament without Heaslip, Healy and Sexton, all absolutely vital to their cause. That shouldn’t worry them much against Italy, even playing away, but Sexton’s ongoing concussion issues must be creating a lot of anxiety, not just for this tournament but for the World Cup as well. Their dearth of class replacements is highlighted by the selection, for this game, of loose forward O’Brien, who has played almost no rugby since his long injury. Kearney, Bowe and Zebo make a powerful back three, post-O’Driscoll/D’Arcy era center combination is useful, O’Connell, O’Mahony, O’Brien and Best are all world-class forwards , but Ireland without Sexton is a side at least 20% less effective.
England should probably be six nations favourites, although they are hit particularly hard by injury. Missing Farrell, Tuilagi, Morgan, Lawes, Wilson, Launchbury, Parling, Barritt, Eastmond and Tom Wood for the visit to Wales. With a combination figured out, Wales will be hoping to win this match, but an upset will be a huge boost for England and make them firm favorites for the title. None of the other teams have anything close to the resources of the English. Even losing their best three blocks for this game, they can put a solid second string on the field. Tight phases are still considerable weapons for them and there are still quality running backs like Mike Brown. On the outside, especially against Wales, weaknesses could be exploited if the Welsh are bold enough to ensure North and Cuthbert receive the ball. As the tournament progresses, England will need to add aspects to their game outside of the dominance of the forwards. In the World Cup, against teams from the southern hemisphere, forwards will not be enough.
On paper Wales look like a good team, but it’s doubtful they have the kind of mental toughness of the wonderful teams of the 1970s. With the addition of Webb at scrum half, the back line looks complete and very dangerous. Biggar should be the opening in the world cup and outside of it he has three fantastic quarters. The loose trio of Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau are first class, but a lot will depend on the top five. If they can meet fire with fire against the old foe tonight, Wales should be very pleased.
The most difficult team to analyze in world rugby is always the French. So unpredictable and such a team of moods, no one knows what to expect from the French. Two South Africans, Kockott and Spedding, make their starting debuts tomorrow and the Kockott/Lopez combination is the 14th running pairing of the Saint Andre era. After missing the entire 2014 campaign, Dusautoir is back and is part of a useful back three in the scrum. Bastareaud and Fofana are a dangerous pairing of centers and there is a wide rhythm. France need to win at home against Scotland, but whatever happens, we probably don’t know the future chances for the French.
Scotland have their best balanced team in many years. The tight five is impressive with Murray, Ford and Dickinson on the front row, backed by the huge Gray brothers in lockdown. Unusually for the Scots, they have pace and size on the wings in Visser and Seymour and the elusive Hogg at the back. However, once the injuries are established, the lack of depth will be exposed. As always, they will play close to their potential.
Italy is likely to be the scapegoat of the tournament. Only the admirable Sergio Parisse and the aging Castrogiovanni are world class. They will likely be at the front of the pack, but will likely, as always, find it difficult to go to the back, where they don’t possess enough pace, size or skill to upset the best.
It’s quite an open tournament this year and there are probably four teams that can win it.